RCPs RCP 1.9. Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. SOURCE: van Vuuren et. First, more detailed information is needed for running the current generation of climate models than that provided by any previous scenario sets. 6 d) are similar to those of the precipitation under the RCP scenarios. Instructor: Sonya Miller, Researcher, Department of Meteorology, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University. The storylines were created along two dimensions – global vs. regional development patterns and whether economic or environmental concerns would be primary. The final and complete SRES scenario data can be viewed and downloaded following the link below. For each category of emissions, an RCP contains a set of starting values and the estimated emissions up to 2100, based on assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. The four RCPs reflect the range of year 2100 greenhouse gas radiative forcing values from 2.6 to 8.5 W m −2 (Figure 1): the lowest forcing level scenario RCP2.6 [van Vuuren et al., 2011b], two median range or stabilization scenarios RCP4.5 [Thomson et al., 2011] and RCP6.0 [Masui et al., 2011], and the high‐end or business‐as‐usual scenario RCP8.5 [Riahi et al., 2011]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA. Figure 6.4: RCP Gross Domestic Product Scenarios. It requires a major turnaround in climate policies and a … However, these were fast becoming dated and lacked some large changes to society and the global economy that have occurred over the past 20 years. This gives you an idea of how challenging the problem of stabilizing carbon emissions at levels lower than twice pre-industrial actually is. The RCP8.5 scenario is the closest to a ‘business as usual’ scenario of fossil fuel use, and has comparable forcing to SRES A2 by 2100. To try and capture a range of possible future emissions, energy syste… In terms of overall forcing, RCP8.5 is broadly comparable to the SRES A2/A1FI scenario, RCP6.0 to B2 and RCP4.5 to … Earlier efforts during the 1990s had developed the “SRES” scenarios, which looked at four different possible future trajectories of population, economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The new scenarios are called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The roadmap gives a simple taxonomy that compares input parameters, as represented by the four scenario families, and emission outputs, as represented by the 1990 to 2100 cumulative CO 2 emissions. The RCP4.5 and SRES B1 scenarios are comparable; RCP6.0 lies between the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios. This leads naturally to our next topic—the topic of stabilization scenarios. In Part 3 we take a look at the scenarios in detail, consider the technical aspects, the differences between the four RCPs, and how they compare to earlier SRES scenarios. Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple) Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter. The changes in annual streamflow at the Jiamusi hydrological station (Fig. This courseware module is part of Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences' OER Initiative. These scenarios made varying assumptions ('storylines') regarding future global population growth, technological development, globalization, and societal values. Depending on the path chosen by society, we could plausibly approach CO 2 concentrations that are quadruple pre-industrial levels by 2100. They were created with 'integrated assessment models' that include climate, economic, land use, demographic, and energy-usage effects, whose greenhouse gas concentrations were then converted to an emissions trajectory using carbon cycle models. 2217 Earth and Engineering Sciences Building, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 The RCP4.5 scenario is analogous to the B1 scenario from AR4; the RCP6.0 scenario is analogous to the A1(b) scenario… RCP 2.6. A set of scenarios referred to as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are in common use to study future climate change. However, it is also consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself (similar to the B1 scenario of the SRES scenarios). Let us now directly compare the various SRES scenarios both in terms of their annual rates of carbon emissions, measured in gigatons (Gt) of carbon (1Gt = 1012 tons), and the resulting trajectories of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. rcp 6 In this scenario, emissions double by 2060 and then dramatically fall but remain well above current levels. Climatic Change. ERF Another (A2, 'a divided world') assumed a greater emphasis on national identities. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and … This future is … The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics. This RCP is developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. The SRES and RCP scenarios have been criticized for being biased towards “exaggerated resource availability” and making “unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 (approximately 650 ppm CO 2-equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.The defining characteristics of this scenario are enumerated in Moss et al. RCP4.5 is similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the century, while SRES scenarios do not. This RCP is developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. 9) SRES A2 scenario - A scenario consistent with the IPCC's SRES A2 storyline. The RCP2.6 scenario peaks at 3.0 W / m2 before declining to 2.6 W / m2 in 2100, and requires strong mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, IPCC, 2000). Each RCP is based on a scenario from the literature that includes a socio-economic development pathway. These scenarios provide a range of possible futures, based on a range of future emissions. To decrease computing time as much as possible, climate models divide the Earth up into large grid cells. Cambridge University Press, UK. (2011) Radiative forcing for the different RCPs. This future is … Figure 6.3a: RCP Global Population Scenarios, Click here for text description of Figure 6.3a, Figure 6.3b: RCP Global Population Scenarios. Energy consumption increases in all scenarios, with non-fossil-carbon-based energy sources most important in RCP 2.6; RCP 8.5 relies heavily on coal, Future emissions differ quite dramatically among the scenarios. Another (A2, 'a divided world') assumed a greater emphasis on national identities. The B1 and B2 scenarios assumed more sustainable practices ('utopia'), with more global-focus and regional-focus, respectively. original SA90 scenarios19 were replaced by the IS92 emission scenarios of the 1990s,20 which were in turn succeeded by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in 2000 (SRES)21 and by the Representative Concentration Path-ways in 2010 (RCPs).22 SA90, IS92, and SRES are all emission-based scenarios. RCP4.5 is similar to SRES B1, but the RCP2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before the end of the century, while SRES scenarios do not. In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 unde… It is important to note that the scenarios do not cover all possible future worlds. For the Fifth Assessment Report, a new set of scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was developed. They begin with a set of storylines IPCC, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Gross domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases; of note, the RCP2.6 pathway has the highest GDP, though it has the least dependence on fossil fuel sources. Forcing level (W/m 2) 8.5 6.0 4.5 2.6 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP4 SSP5 Different socioeconomic pathways, but climate “consistent” with RCP 4.5 The RCPs cover a wider range than the scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in previous assessments, as they also represent scenarios with climate policy. In the A2 scenario, global population levels reach 15 billion by 2100. Ideally, these scenarios span the range of possible future emissions pathways, so that they can be used as a basis for exploring a realistic set of future projections of climate change. The numbers on the right show the final radiative forcing at 2100 and give each scenario its name (8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 W/m²) SOURCE: … from the co-called A2r scenario (Riahi et al. RCP1.9 is a pathway that limits global warming to below 1.5 °C, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement. For impact, vulnerability or ada… Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K et al. For example, the second-to-lowest RCP could be considered as a moderate mitigation scenario. Therefore, it is important… RCP data is in tables - if you’re familiar with a spreadsheet, the format is somewhat similar. As pointed out by Moss et al. The RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios stabilize after 2100 at 4.2 W / m 2 and 6.0 W / m 2, respectively. Key points • Starting point: non-mitigation SRES scenarios (SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) • Decisions taken by IPCC about development of scenarios for AR5 • Parallel approach with fast-track RCPs • RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways • NB: Socio-economic aspects covered in Ramon Pichs talk 2 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The term pathway emphasises that not only the long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also the trajectory taken over time to reach that outcome (Moss et al., 2010). Figure 6.3a: RCP Global Population Scenarios, Click here for text description of Figure 6.3a, Figure 6.3b: RCP Global Population Scenarios. Getting the concentrations actually requires an intermediate step involving the use of simple model of ocean carbon uptake, to account for the effect of oceanic absorption of atmospheric CO 2 . The readings this week include a Commentary from the journal Nature about the issue of RCPs and the path forward with SSPs. In all pathways, global population levels off or starts to decline by 2100; the highest world population (12 billion) is achieved by 2100 in RCP 8.5, Gross Domestic product (GDP) increases in all cases, and interestingly, the highest GDP is realized in the RCP 2.6 scenario. Over the first ten years of these scenarios, observed emissions actually were close to the most carbon intensive of the SRES scenarios—A1FI. In the late 2000s, researchers from different modelling groups around the world began the process of developing new scenarios to explore how the world might change over the rest of the 21st century.Earlier efforts during the 1990s had developed the “ The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing characteristics. The RCPs span a wider range of possibilities than the SRES marker scenarios used in the modelling for the IPCC 3rd and IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5) The Scenario Matrix Architecture IAV study Socioeconomic information Climate information. While some of the scenarios involve storylines that embrace generic notions of sustainability and environmental protection, the scenarios do not envision explicit attempts to stabilize CO 2 concentrations at any particular level. The College of Earth and Mineral Sciences is committed to making its websites accessible to all users, and welcomes comments or suggestions on access improvements. (Version 1.1 of the GHG emissions associated with the 40 SRES scenarios provided here are not completely identical to those in Appendix VII of the SRES … While many scenario assumptions and results of the RCP8.5 are already well Figure 1. 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